The rapid advance by Syrian rebel forces allied to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) over the past few weeks has shocked many. It has shifted battle lines in the country’s grueling civil war, which has now been in full swing for almost four years. It is also raising questions about the role of jihadist extremism and the influence of Turkey, which supports some rebel groups and has been pressing for a political solution to the conflict.
Unlike government forces, rebels are unlikely to have extensive knowledge of the limits of action imposed by international humanitarian law during non-international armed conflicts. However, they will likely be subject to national laws, including those on crimes against humanity and war crimes. Moreover, as previous research has shown, rebel groups often attract more opportunistic recruits than do government forces, and may therefore be more likely to breach the laws of war during non-international armed conflicts by killing or harming those who are not fighting in the conflict.
It will be extremely challenging for HTS and other rebels to hold on to new territory, especially as the government and its allies gear up to fight back. It could also prove difficult for HTS and other rebels to maintain the morale needed to hold more territory and one day govern it. The rebels may find themselves confronting demoralised soldiers who are resentful of low pay and corruption in the ranks, as well as mounting pressure from local communities to end the conflict and return their homes.