The rise of long-range destruction capabilities that can be coupled with ballistic and nuclear warheads marked the greatest increase in the capacity for violence and destruction in human history. The emergence of this new rung on the escalation ladder has made it seem as though the world had reached its limits in terms of avoiding a catastrophic, unintended war.
Military escalation is not a zero-sum game but is an essential part of conflict management. It is not just a matter of increasing the intensity of conflict or the geographic scope, but also can serve other key functions in crises and conflicts, including communicating stake and resolve, demonstrating capability, and even outright conflict termination.
During the course of history, most conflicts have a tendency to escalate to the level of violence that the belligerents consider most advantageous and necessary. This has been a combination of conscious and deliberate decision making, but more often an unconscious reaction to the accelerating dynamics of conflict, driven by emotion and instinct. The result has been that the exercise of restraint and control by all parties was extremely difficult once hostilities began and virtually impossible as the escalation ran its course.
In the past, a state’s ability to carry out steps on an escalation ladder could be constrained by its available resources. However, the rapid advancements in weaponry, especially with regard to the range and destructive power of missiles and drones, has greatly increased a state’s potential for escalating a conflict, particularly in response to provocation.